Forecasting models and DSS

In this section you will find general and introductory information on the forecasting models used by the WiForAgri DSS software
The forecasting models used by the WiForAgri platform were developed starting from collaborations in universities and in research and development projects. Each model (agronomic and phytopathological) is validated over multi-year time periods by comparing the development phases of the pathologies/problems observed in the field and those simulated by the models. Subsequently, the algorithms were optimized through a progressive calibration of some significant parameters and weights. Finally, these calibrations have been successfully tested in a number of statistically significant agronomic realities. DSS software related to agronomic management (e.g. irrigation and fertilization model) together with phytosanitary risk prediction models (pathologies and specific pests per crop) allow optimization in the timing and dosage of water, fertilizers and phytosanitary treatments.
The agronomic and phytosanitary management indications that we provide to users through forecasting models have specific distinctive characteristics.
1) accessibility, the templates are available 24 hours a day 7 days a week via any web access device (mobile phone, computer, PDA) and with your username and password.
2) simplicity, the models report the temporal development of the disease on the crops, in a clear and comprehensive manner, chromatically highlighting all the moments of pathological crisis linked to key moments in the development of the pathogen (e.g.: time phase of establishment of the fungal spores, phase of infection primary, secondary infection phase) on which it is more important to program defense treatments.
3) timeliness, through an SMS/email alarm system the platform is able to notify the user on a daily basis, as well as giving a qualitative forecast of the development of the pathogen.
4) interactivity, the system is able to reconfigure itself on the basis of the interactive indications entered by the user, ie on the basis of the field data entered (phenological phases, treatments).
Additional Information:
  • Primo Principio will make annual improvements that may involve both the development of new forecasting models and the updating of pre-existing models.
  • With WiForAgri we offer you continuous training: we support you in training and calibrating the DSS models year after year to your specific reality. After 2 years of coaching you will become an expert user.
  • We offer you a single platform for advanced management with distinctive value-added services.
  • WiForAgri uses only professional sensors calibrated in the laboratory and WMO certified weather stations.

DSS models in forecast mode in future days

Dal 2022 WiForAgri ha introdotto una nuova funzionalità relativa ad alcuni modelli DSS; i modelli riportano graficamente:
  • the risk situation estimated to date (using the data measured by the field sensors as input to the algorithms)
  • the probable evolution of the risk situation in the next 2-3 days (using forecast weather data as input to the same algorithms).
Graphically, the distinction between the situation estimated today and that assumed in future days is highlighted by a vertical red line representing the current date-time: to the right of the red line, the outputs estimated by the model in the next few days are represented, starting from forecast weather data.
Example of a WiForAgri DSS model with forecast estimates into the future (to the right of the red line)
The ability of DSS models to operate in forecast mode in the future days allows the user a great advantage which proves to be decisive in many situations: predicting a criticality in advance means having more time to organize and execute the correct defense countermeasures (for example a coverage treatment).